China Trade in Review 2026 (year to date, as of September 2026)

The General Administration of Customs reported on 14 July 2026 that China's goods trade in the first half of 2026 reached 25.47 trillion yuan (about 3.75 trillion US dollars), 16.9 % more than a year earlier and the first time the half-year total passed 25 trillion yuan. Exports grew 13.4 % to 14.73 trillion yuan — the eleventh consecutive quarter of growth — and imports 22.1 % to 10.74 trillion yuan, 8.7 points faster than exports, which narrowed the surplus.

Two features stand out against 2025. Import growth returned, driven by commodities, chips and equipment; and high-tech exports rose 39 %, with semiconductors, rare-earth products, vehicles and ships the fastest-growing lines, while toys, footwear, steel and furniture lagged (GACC, July 2026, as reported by CNBC and Xinhua).

Belt and Road partner countries took more than half of China's trade in the first half for the first time; China–CEEC trade rose 11 % to 580.12 billion yuan (State Council Information Office, 14 July 2026). Customs data for the first quarter, reported in May, showed exports of 977.6 billion US dollars (+14 %) with Southeast Asia up 20 % and Africa up 32 %, while exports to the United States fell 16 %. Private enterprises accounted for 57 % of trade at 14.53 trillion yuan, up 17 %.

The United Kingdom and Canada joined China's 30-day visa-free scheme on 17 February 2026, and China extended Russia's waiver to the end of 2027 on 20 May 2026 — small measures with a direct effect on buyer travel to the Canton Fair and other fairs.

US Section 301 tariffs stayed in force with sector rates of up to 100 %, the 10 % reciprocal tariff remained, and on 23 July 2026 the USTR imposed a 12.5 % tariff on Chinese goods for what it called a failure to prohibit imports of forced-labour goods — in practice a rise of about 2.5 points in the effective rate, according to China Briefing's tariff tracker. 178 Section 301 exclusions were extended to 10 November 2026. On the Chinese side, the October 2025 arrangement held: retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural goods stayed removed and the suspension of export restrictions on gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite ran to 27 November 2026.

Container lines had begun returning to the Suez route in February 2026 as Houthi attacks receded, but the US–Israel conflict with Iran from 28 February 2026 cut transits through the Strait of Hormuz, and in July the Houthis resumed attacks in the Red Sea (USNI News, 24 July 2026). Asia–Europe services largely stayed on the Cape of Good Hope. Drewry's World Container Index climbed to a ten-month high in July and stood at 4,465 US dollars per 40-foot container on 3 September 2026, with Shanghai–Rotterdam at about 4,100 and Shanghai–Genoa at about 4,400 US dollars.

China cancelled the export VAT rebate on photovoltaic products and cut the battery rebate from 9 % to 6 % on 1 April 2026, with battery rebates to end on 1 January 2027; shipments were front-loaded in March and repriced afterwards.

The third-quarter customs release (October 2026), the outcome of the 10 November Section 301 exclusion deadline and the 27 November export-restriction suspension, the Canton Fair autumn session (15 October – 4 November 2026) and CIIE (5–10 November 2026), and the full-year release in January 2027. These will be appended here as dated sections; the text above stays as published.