China Freight Forwarding: Outlook and Trends for 2025
Strategic analysis of key trends shaping China's freight forwarding industry in 2025, including trade patterns, technology adoption, and market dynamics.
Market Outlook
The outlook for 2025 is one of moderate growth amid global uncertainties, continued innovation, and a push for sustainability in China's freight forwarding sector.
Key Trends & Developments
After 2024's remarkable surge with 6% export growth and record $6.1 trillion total trade, 2025 projects more modest expansion reflecting market stabilization.
Forwarders will handle more complex, high-value cargo requiring specialized services as China moves up the value chain
Throughout 2025
Key Points
- •Industry forecasts suggest 3-4% global container trade growth
- •China exported over 2 million electric vehicles in 2024
- •High-tech and green products driving export composition shift
- •Over 50% of trade now with Belt and Road countries
- •Growth tilt toward emerging markets in Asia, Middle East, Africa, Latin America
- •Specialized services needed for EVs, batteries, and high-tech cargo
- •Relatively higher growth on China-ASEAN and China-Middle East lanes
Trade war dynamics and policy uncertainties create significant downside risks despite baseline positive growth projections.
Forwarders must remain agile, ready to reroute or refocus on growth markets if certain lanes slow significantly
Ongoing throughout 2025
Key Points
- •New U.S. tariffs effective in 2025 may reduce tech-related exports
- •Europe's carbon border taxes and investment scrutiny affecting trade
- •China offsetting Western headwinds through deeper Asia-Pacific ties
- •RCEP trade agreement stimulating intra-Asian commerce
- •Belt and Road projects creating new trade corridors
- •Potential for trade growth between low single digits or higher depending on global demand
- •Need for flexible routing and market focus strategies
Global container ship fleet expanding ~8% in TEU terms while demand growth lags, creating downward pressure on freight rates.
Mixed blessing for forwarders - lower rates reduce customer costs but may shrink margins on ocean freight services
Expected throughout 2025
Key Points
- •Ocean freight rates expected to remain among weakest in recent years
- •Rates above pre-pandemic averages but significantly lower than 2021-2022 peaks
- •Low rates potentially spurring more trade volume
- •Carriers competing aggressively leading to customer contract renegotiations
- •Air freight rates stable to slightly declining with normalized passenger flight capacity
- •More predictable logistics cost budgeting for importers/exporters
- •Potential for index-linked contracts and multi-carrier rate management
Digital transformation deepening with wider adoption of AI, IoT, and blockchain across the freight forwarding industry.
Trend toward higher productivity - handling more shipments per employee with greater accuracy and efficiency
Accelerating throughout 2025
Key Points
- •Chinese government supporting 'Smart Logistics' infrastructure development
- •Smart ports, intelligent transport systems, and logistics big data centers
- •Forwarders partnering with tech startups or developing in-house platforms
- •Semi-autonomous operations centers with AI handling routine tasks
- •Digital freight forwarding marketplaces gaining notable market share
- •Traditional forwarders joining platforms like CargoWise or Digital Freight Alliance
- •Pressure on traditional models from direct online booking platforms
Greater emphasis on sustainability driven by China's carbon peaking by 2030 and neutrality by 2060 pledges affecting the logistics sector.
Environmental sustainability moving from niche consideration to mainstream element of freight planning
Building momentum throughout 2025
Key Points
- •Ports like Shanghai developing green shipping corridors with LA and Hamburg
- •More vessels using cleaner fuels on China-related routes
- •Ports offering incentives for low-emission ships
- •Forwarders reporting on and reducing supply chain carbon footprints
- •Electric trucks for local delivery and solar-powered warehouses expanding
- •Intermodal transport (rail/barge) growth due to lower emissions
- •Green freight options becoming selling points with premium pricing
- •Corporate carbon reduction goals driving logistics provider requirements
Pandemic and geopolitical conflict experiences driving enhanced focus on supply chain diversification and risk mitigation.
Forwarders expanding from logistics providers to supply chain consultants offering integrated risk management solutions
Ongoing strategic focus
Key Points
- •Multi-port strategies reducing reliance on single gateway ports
- •Buffer inventory and bonded logistics zones for flexibility
- •Alternative carriers and transport modes maintained as backup options
- •Integrated end-to-end solutions including insurance and risk services
- •Cargo insurance covering delay and political risk beyond loss/damage
- •Near-shoring and regionalization potentially affecting China export volumes
- •China moving up value chain to export more intermediate goods
- •Belt and Road infrastructure improvements opening fresh route alternatives
Potential trade policy shifts and domestic reforms affecting freight forwarding operations and market opportunities.
Regulatory changes could significantly impact freight flows and create new opportunities in import logistics
Policy announcements expected throughout 2025
Key Points
- •Possibility of tariff rollbacks or new trade agreements
- •RCEP further reducing tariffs in Asia-Pacific region
- •China policies to stimulate imports for trade balance
- •Easier customs clearance and tariff cuts on selected imports
- •Customs digitization and Green Customs requirements expansion
- •GAC pilots for advance declaration and trusted trader programs
- •Logistics standardization for electronic bills of lading
- •Data format standards for improved international interoperability
Continued expansion of China's logistics infrastructure with new ports, inland facilities, and air cargo capacity coming online.
Infrastructure improvements will ease bottlenecks and provide new logistics options while potentially reducing transit times and costs
Ongoing development throughout 2025
Key Points
- •New terminals at Shanghai Yangshan and deep-sea port in Fujian
- •Inland dry ports and cross-border rail facilities enhancement
- •New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor reporting 76.9% cargo growth
- •Ezhou freight-focused airport in Hubei becoming more active
- •Better infrastructure enabling greater capacity and lower costs
- •Air cargo infrastructure expansion supporting growing demand
- •Investment flowing to high-growth logistics corridors
- •Gradual bottleneck resolution opening new service offerings
Strategic Perspectives
Freight forwarding in China in 2025 is marked by adaptation and opportunity. Forwarders must juggle global challenges – geopolitical risk, economic shifts – while harnessing technology and infrastructure gains to deliver value. The industry is evolving toward supply chain consultants, not just moving boxes but guiding clients on optimal inventory positioning, mode mix, and compliance strategies.
Business users (importers/exporters) can expect more reliable and transparent services as technology and process improvements take hold. Costs for freight are more manageable than recent years, but uncertainty remains constant, making the forwarder's advisory role critical.
China's centrality in global trade remains firmly entrenched as a manufacturing and trading powerhouse. Trends like digitalization and green logistics prominent in China are likely setting global standards. Freight forwarders in China, armed with technology and resilience, are charting the future while navigating present challenges.