China Freight Forwarding: Outlook and Trends for 2026

The GACC's July 2026 release showed first-half exports up 13.4 % with Belt and Road partners taking more than half of China's total trade for the first time, and China–CEEC trade up 11 %. US customs data for 2025 recorded imports from China of 308.7 billion US dollars, down 29.9 % on 2024. For forwarders the consequence is a rebalancing of lane capacity: more Southeast Asian, Middle Eastern, African and Latin American sailings and rail, fewer transpacific eastbound loads from Chinese ports.

Section 301 tariffs remained in force in 2026 (25 % on Lists 1–3, 7.5 % on List 4A, with sector rates of up to 100 % on electric vehicles and 50 % on semiconductors), the 10 % reciprocal tariff stayed, and on 23 July 2026 the USTR added a 12.5 % forced-labour tariff on Chinese goods, raising the effective rate by 2.5 points according to China Briefing's tariff tracker. The October 2025 arrangement under which China removed retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural goods and suspended export restrictions on gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite until 27 November 2026 held through the summer. Planning replaced shock.

Container lines had begun returning to the Suez route in early 2026 as Houthi attacks receded (S&P Global, February 2026), but the outbreak of the US–Israel conflict with Iran on 28 February 2026 cut transits through the Strait of Hormuz, and USNI reported on 24 July 2026 that Hormuz transits remained low and that the Houthis had resumed attacks in the Red Sea. Asia–Europe services largely stayed on the Cape of Good Hope routing, adding ten to fourteen days and, by industry estimates, 25–40 % to Asia–Europe rates.

Vessel deliveries kept the fleet growing in 2026 while rerouting absorbed part of the surplus. Drewry's index climbed to a ten-month high in July 2026 as the early peak season met Cape routing, then flattened in September at 4,465 US dollars per 40-foot container. The consequence for shippers was a two-speed market: contract rates below spot for most of the year, and spot rates that moved with each chokepoint headline.

China cancelled the export VAT rebate on photovoltaic products from 1 April 2026 and cut the battery rebate from 9 % to 6 % on the same date, with elimination scheduled for 1 January 2027, according to the State Council Information Office briefing of 12 January 2026. Exporters front-loaded shipments in the first quarter and repriced afterwards; forwarders saw a spike in solar and battery volumes in March followed by renegotiated contracts.

China–Europe Railway Express ran 20,022 trains in 2025, up 3.2 %, carrying 2.05 million TEU, slightly down, according to Upply's analysis of official data; westbound departures from China rose 14.4 % while eastbound fell 6.1 %. In 2026 the Middle East disruptions pushed additional time-sensitive cargo to rail and to the trans-Caspian Middle Corridor, while sanctions compliance on the northern route through Russia kept many European shippers away.

The end of the US de minimis exemption for Chinese parcels in 2025 moved much cross-border e-commerce from air parcels to consolidated ocean and air freight with formal entry. In 2026 platforms such as Temu and Shein continued to shift towards local warehousing in the United States and Europe, changing forwarders' work from parcel line-haul to inbound bulk moves and fulfilment logistics.

Instant quoting, online booking and tracked customs status became the baseline expectation of shippers in 2026. Larger Chinese forwarders integrated with carrier APIs and China's Single Window, while smaller agents either joined platform networks or specialised in niches such as dangerous goods, project cargo and cold chain. State-owned groups continued to consolidate regional players.

The IMO's global net-zero framework and the EU Emissions Trading System surcharges on voyages to and from Europe turned carbon into a visible surcharge on Asia–Europe bookings in 2026. Chinese yards delivered methanol- and LNG-capable tonnage for the large carriers, and Chinese ports expanded shore power. For shippers the practical effect was another surcharge line and a growing demand for emissions reporting per shipment.